Brazil BR

Currency: BRL. Central bank: Banco Central do Brasil. BRL/USD: 0.1773.

Macro read

Consolidated decision read: what to monitor, why it matters, and where the data is still thin.

Regime scenario

Medium risk

Recession risk

Weak growth with inflation above target — watch labor.

Growth Slowing 4.9 · Inflation Above target 4.5 · weakest: Fiscal 2.4, Monetary 3.0

What to monitor: Review stress drivers and recent releases before increasing macro confidence.

growth momentuminflation trendcentral bank stance

Macro regime

Six dimensions, scored from 0 to 10. Radar shows the overall shape; cards show trend and label per dimension.

Growth

4.9Stable

slowing

Inflation

4.5Worsening

above target

Labor

9.2Stable

tight

Monetary

3.0Improving

restrictive

External

3.6Stable

vulnerable

Fiscal

2.4Stable

expansive

Key indicators

Cross-country comparable indicators with 5-year micro history. Latest bar in gold; missing indicators render with a baseline.

Brazil GDP YoY

1.92%

Brazil CPI YoY (IBGE IPCA, 12 months)

4.63%

Brazil unemployment rate (IBGE PNAD Continua, rolling quarter)

5.20%

BCB Selic target

13.75%

Brazil long-term gov bond yield

13.59%

Brazil Current account % GDP

-2.04% of GDP

Brazil Government debt % GDP

93.30% of GDP

Brazil Fiscal balance % GDP

-7.40% of GDP

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