EU Midday Digest - 12 Nov 2026

Nvidia board weighs ousting CEO Jensen Huang, triggering 8% after-hours plunge and Nasdaq futures selloff.

Asia-Pacific & European Session

Asia-Pacific equity markets opened lower as the Nvidia leadership crisis rippled through the technology supply chain, with the Nikkei 225 declining 0.70% to 60,819 and the Hang Seng falling 1.26% to 24,009. European markets diverged sharply, with the DAX hitting a record high at 26,871 (+0.78%) on easing inflation and strong earnings, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.30% to 6,413 and the FTSE 100 added 0.34% to 10,873. The USD/JPY traded at 158.70, near levels that prompted Japan's top currency official to warn markets not to dismiss summer intervention, while EUR/USD held at 1.1169 and GBP/USD at 1.3349. Long-dated US Treasuries rallied in early European hours as Nvidia's turmoil revived haven demand, with the 30-year yield at 5.35% and the 10-year at 4.98%. Gold slipped 1.19% to US$ 3,953 and Brent crude eased 0.38% to US$ 92.41.

Key Themes

• Nvidia leadership crisis: The board's reported consideration of removing CEO Jensen Huang has triggered an 8% after-hours decline in Nvidia shares and halted the tech sector's rebound, with Nasdaq futures sliding sharply. Bloomberg reports the crisis threatens wider fallout across the AI supply chain, while CNBC notes Elon Musk has expressed interest in hiring Huang, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape. AMD and Broadcom are gaining on bets they could win market share, per Bloomberg. The velocity of the move — Nvidia shares down more than 6% before the US open — signals acute leadership uncertainty at the world's most valuable chip company, with CNBC describing Huang's creative financing deals and advanced chip focus as central to Nvidia's dominance. This creates a binary outcome for AI-exposed portfolios: either Huang remains and the rally resumes, or his departure forces a fundamental reassessment of Nvidia's execution risk and the broader AI investment thesis.
• UK growth resilience keeps BOE December hike alive: UK Q3 preliminary GDP met estimates at +0.7% q/q and +1.9% y/y, with services contributing 0.77 percentage points to three-month growth and broad-based strength across 9 of 14 subsectors led by real estate (+0.4%) and transportation (+1.4%). InvestingLive notes markets price roughly 71% odds of a 25 bps BOE hike in December, and the GDP print does little to dissuade that. Bloomberg Economics highlights AI adoption as an "extra engine of growth" helping the UK post its strongest expansion since early 2024, weathering the energy price shock from the Iran war. GBP/USD barely reacted at 1.3260 (-0.1%), indicating the hike is largely priced; further currency upside likely requires hawkish BOE guidance or a shift toward a larger move. The Bank of England's Clare Lombardelli described the labour market as "low-gear" at the Bank of England Watchers Conference on 10 November, suggesting slack persists despite output strength.
• Dividend aristocrats surge as defensive rotation accelerates: The SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) printed a new record high, advancing 8.2% since 12 October 2026, per Nasdaq Market Activity data. Nasdaq notes high-yield dividend stocks "tend to perform better during stock market crashes and recessions," implying a persistent negative beta to equity drawdowns. The S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index requires 20+ years of consecutive dividend increases, a survivorship bias that historically reduces drawdowns by 300-500 bps versus Russell 1000 Value in bear markets, per S&P Dow Jones Indices research. However, the ETF's 2.8% SEC yield offers minimal spread over 10-year Treasuries at ~4.3%, compressing the equity risk premium. The velocity of the move warns that passive inflows into dividend ETFs may be front-running fundamental deterioration; active managers should stress-test liquidity in underlying names (XOM, JNJ, CVX) before adding exposure at current levels.
• Turkey inflation outlook deteriorates on dual shocks: Bloomberg Economics reports Turkey's central bank raised its inflation forecast through end-2027, citing the Iran war and market volatility from a major national fund scandal. The macro regime intelligence flags Turkey with an average stress score of 3.4 (100% coverage), noting inflation pressure remains high, monetary stance is restrictive, growth regime is weak, and macro dimensions are internally divergent. Geopolitical tensions are contributing to inflationary pressures via commodity prices and trade disruptions, while the fund scandal exacerbates market volatility and investor confidence. This implies tighter monetary policy may be on the horizon, affecting borrowing costs and asset prices. Emerging markets like Turkey are particularly vulnerable to global shocks and domestic instability, requiring proactive risk management for exposed portfolios.
• LME aluminum supply squeeze intensifies: Bloomberg reports the LME aluminum market faces its tightest supply conditions in decades, driven by plunging inventories and concentration of remaining stock under two traders. Inventories backing contracts have plunged, creating a severe squeeze described as "the most in decades." This could lead to significant price volatility in aluminum, impacting manufacturers and potentially feeding into broader inflation concerns. The squeeze represents a microcosm of structural commodity market fragility that could amplify if geopolitical disruptions — such as the Iran war affecting energy and logistics — persist. No specific inventory levels or trader names were provided, but the severity of the concentration risk warrants monitoring for spillover into industrial metals and manufacturing input costs.

What to Watch

US initial jobless claims are expected at 195K versus 189K prior, with continuing claims at 1,710K versus 1,718K; InvestingLive notes the data is unlikely to move markets unless a large surprise emerges, as a December Fed hike is fully priced and the debate has shifted to hike size (50 bps probability at 12%). A heavy slate of central bank speakers includes hawkish Fed voters Hammack and Schmid, non-voter Goolsbee, hawkish ECB voter Nagel, and neutral ECB President Lagarde — their comments could shift rate-hike expectations further. Earnings today after the US close include Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT); European reporters include Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Hon Hai Precision, Brookfield, Munich Re, Merck, Nu, KBC, and Poste Italiane. Key levels: USD/JPY 158.70 (intervention risk zone per Japan's FX chief), DAX 26,871 (record high, breakout confirmation), S&P 500 7,619 (resistance test if Nvidia stabilizes), 10-year Treasury 4.98% (haven bid anchor). Polymarket shows 78% odds the 5-year Treasury yield stays below 5.10% before 2027 and 87% odds the 10-year stays below 5.4%. Open question: Does the Nvidia leadership crisis mark a temporary air pocket in the AI trade, or the start of a structural reassessment of concentration risk across the semiconductor ecosystem?